Leaders matter!

Regulatory agencies nowadays are supposed to have a certain degree of independence… Slo’s article touches on the matter of independence, from an exciting angle…

Christmas, Brexit, regulation, and how ‘good’ and ‘bad’ uncertainty is fundamentally the same

Christmas gifts greatly determine what kids play after Christmas. If they get a soccer ball, they’ll play football. If the gift is a remote control car, they’ll drive that thing until batteries run out. In my case, my parents never told me what I would get. It was a surprise. Surprises are uncertainty. They can…

The difference between risk and uncertainty—without using the coin example

Risk and uncertainty are undoubtedly linked, but uncertainty is not the same as risk. We know this but sometimes, to not think deeply about it, we repeat the coin script when asked about the difference: Imagine you flip a coin 100 times. If the coin were perfectly balanced, the final tally would read 50/50. However,…

Uncertainty and indeterminacy

Some uncertainty comes not from complication but from indeterminacy. For example, I love both sushi and pizza. Simple preferences. But put me in front of two restaurants selling each, and even I don’t know which one I’ll pick. This 2-restaurant scenario is simple and indeterminate, and the outcome uncertain. We need to have a talk…

The nuances of the word ‘complexity’

A popular way to explain the difference between risk and uncertainty is the example of the coin: Imagine you flip a coin 100 times. If the coin was perfectly balanced the final tally would read: 50x head, 50x tails. However, since coins are not perfect, in real life you’re more likely to get something like…

Edgardo W. Olivera (https://flic.kr/p/PKP2j7) (Unmodified). CC BY 2.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/).

Egyptians & Uncertainty

The concept of uncertainty runs deep in the fabric of humanity. In fact, considering that one of the first industries where the concept of modern risk was perfected was the insurance of ships, it is almost poetic that the Egyptian hieroglyphics used to refer to the concept of ‘ill-luck’ or ‘disaster’ linked with the description…

A poem about uncertainty

! There she was; I waited life. There she went; I never dared. She was uncertainty. We doubt. Happiness, if you and her. Sadness, you never dared. Joy and sorrow at once… the bloody cat! “Risk”, you say? Good luck in life my dear friend! *.*